The Coming “Moment of Truth” with
Iran
The latest in a long line of
Iranian provocations
was this week’s
test-firing of nine ballistic missiles, with coincidental
statements by one of supreme leader
Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei's spokesmen for the
Revolutionary Guard. The statement indicated that
Tel Aviv, U.S.
ships in the Gulf and U.S. interests around the world will be
“burned down” if “the first bullet” is fired against
Iran’s nuclear facilities. Late word is that Iran has fired more
ballistic missiles on day 3 of “The Great Prophet III” war games.
What could be more apparent than the coming showdown with Iran? The
question is, will it come before or after Iran has the ability to
employ nuclear weapons?
Discussion of military action against Iran is surfacing throughout
the international media. Not only is Iran test firing yet more of
its missiles, but boasting that they have thousands more “ready to
launch.” Some of these missiles are capable of reaching
Israel and
designed to carry nuclear warheads. One analyst went so far as to
say they were “otherwise worthless.”
Israel is in a real predicament. In the event of military
hostilities with Iran, Israel would likely come under fire from at
least three fronts, maybe four if
Syria were to get
involved. Hezbollah
has reportedly been furiously adding to its rocket stockpiles in
southern Lebanon
and now has three times more than they had when the last skirmish
broke out in the summer of 2006.
The U.S. is in something of a predicament as well. Regardless as to
whether Israel or U.S. assets are used against Iran’s nuclear
facilities, the U.S. will definitely be involved if Iran strikes
back. We are pledged to act in Israel’s defense, regardless.
The head of OPEC has
warned that oil prices would see an “unlimited increase” if Iran’s 4
million barrels per day contribution to world exports should be
interrupted. In addition, Iran has warned that it would shut down
Persian Gulf
shipping lanes if attacked in a threat that is contradicted by the
U.S. Pentagon.
Consider the following quote from a current article in the
Washington Post. “Peter Zimmerman, a nuclear physicist who was
formerly chief scientist for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,
said the accuracy of the missile (capable of hitting Israel) was
poor and could miss its target altogether. A missile with a nuclear
warhead, by contrast, would not need to be accurate since it would
destroy an area far beyond its range of accuracy.”
The upshot seems to be that Iran will not have the capability of
“burning down Tel Aviv” unless it is able to complete its work and
actually utilize a nuclear warhead.
Nevertheless, the fallout from an attack on Iran may well be
considerable. It may mean dramatic increases at the pump. Hopefully
that would be temporary if our leaders here in the U.S. can bring
themselves to allow more domestic resources to be brought on line.
There is still talk, even current statements from
President George W. Bush, of solving the Iranian conundrum
through diplomacy. But Iran has been aggressively defiant at every
opportunity. And there is recognition at high levels that Iran’s
religious leaders have an apocalyptic view of their role in the
grand scheme of things that does not lend itself to a peaceful
resolution.
Arab regimes in the Middle East are wary of Iran and its quest for
regional power, and there is concern that any military move by
Israel or the U.S. might spark an uprising by
Shia minorities in
Sunni ruled Arab
countries.
The whole tangled scenario is a major subject of political posturing
in both Israel and in the U.S. Former Israeli Defense Minister
Amir Peretz
is cited in today’s
Jerusalem Post as saying that any attack against Iran should be
undertaken by an international force lead by the United States. “At
the moment of truth, America will be with us.” But the still
politically active Peretz also allowed for the possibility that
Israel might have to go it alone.
Either way, the Iran situation reigns as the most dangerous current
threat to the Middle East, and to the world’s economy. It seems
clear that there will be no clean way out of this problem,
particularly given Iran’s angrily defiant posture. The situation has
vexed the Middle East, Europe and the U.S. for years now. At length,
Iran dealt with the UN’s nuclear regulatory body in apparent good
faith, until they were caught in repeated bald face lies regarding
their enrichment work. Most analysts suspect that Iran is now very
near to completing work on their nuclear weapons program. The
“moment of truth” cannot be far off.
